February 24, 2025

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Table Of Contents:

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24th Feb 2025 - Another analysis with rather interesting hope of reversal which didn’t happen. Yet again, in a bear year focus on bear trend

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What next guys? Fight or flight? Is it over ….. Panic everywhere ….. Coach said 220k$ now we are less than 20k$

I had a good conversation with one of my good coaching students today , so I thought let me break the silence.

The silence was intentional by the way, just to see how people react.

Do they follow the lessons ….

CME Gap Tracker

CME Gap Tracker

This is a CME Gap tracker table I have been using

CME Gap is difference between Friday Close and Monday Open.

Price is expected to open on Monday at Friday’s close price. When this doesn’t happen it creates an obligation for it to be closed in future. Think of it like a debt that has to be paid. We have one at 11K$

The big question on my mind was do we leave the 2 open and close later or do we close now and go up….. Highly likelihood now is close

This is a drawdown table, you just enter the highest price and it gives you a drawdown measure and which Moving Average we are looking at. As you can see, 11K$ is already estimated as support at the lowest possible level ever SMA100 Monthly.

Let’s make it more interesting ….

This is the selling guide

• 1st row says as follows:
• 2nd row says as follows:

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24th Feb 2025: The 1st condition it was

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1st condition of EMA5 Daily crossing SMA200 Daily happened on 31st December 2021. So it was clear from the start of the year that SMA200 Weekly was the likely support.

2nd condition of EMA5 Weekly crossing SMA100 Weekly happened in May 2022. So next support is likely SMA100 Monthly at 11K$.

With one condition only, if SMA200 Weekly holds as good support this won’t happen now maybe next year.

If it doesn’t, 11K$ it is

Between today and Monday, it should be clear. If we have gaps at 18K and 11k we also have gaps at 29K and 36K. Price is sandwiched in between, so which plays…..

But 220K$ by 15th July still remains. How? Am I crazy ……

NB* Post-analysis review addendum: Lol, maybe I was crazy, the price did not hit 220K$ by 15th July 2022

Well remember my article last year in November 2021: The Scissor Effect

In 2013 it took 6 weeks to go 1100%.

In 2017 it took 12 weeks to go 550%.

• 12 weeks — 550%
• 6 weeks — 1100%

So let’s do the numbers, based on the pattern ….. Half the time twice the percentage growth

• So 3 weeks — 2200% or 22 times

3 weeks to July 15th starts the week of 27th June

220,000 / 22 = 10,000$

June 26th remember is our next drawdown date. By the way, the drawdowns have been occurring within respective 18-day cycles

How to manage a portfolio: Fed Rate (Credit Market) vs SP500 (Equity Market)

The Fed increased rates last week by 0.75% what they call 75BP.

I noted in the above article early in the year that we needed 178BP increased rats for us to go high.

I also noted that the S&P 500 — US Stock market is highly related to Bitcoin as noted by several authors I quoted.

Let’s see the performance of the rate hike since then and the correlation in terms of going down.

You can see the Fed rate, and how much they’ve increased rates in each session. Cumulative increment and balance remaining from my 178BP proposed increment.

The total increment is 150, balance 28 which they will hopefully increase in July giving a boost to Alt Coin run.

If you look at S&P it’s just slightly above SMA50 Monthly and the lower Bollinger Band. It’s obvious that it should move downwards next week, get support and start on progress upwards towards the Peak

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NB* Post-analysis review addendum 24th Feb 2025: This was the left shoulder move, Inverse head would come in later on 9th Oct 2022.

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Now, remembering my advice early in the year. Increase your fuel tank of patience, and continue to focus on your main income source.

My favourite quote,

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“Delay doesn’t mean denial it means preparation”.

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News sources as I advised when we started the year would be rather discouraging. This is to get the weak hands and doubtful ones to sell. Once they’ve done it, the number of sellers left will be few. Considering it’s like an auction, prices will be quoted at the highest prices taking the trend up. When it’s high, news sources all over will be very encouraging. Thus some will buy at peak prices, unfortunately.

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The news actually became discouraging at the bottom that is November 2022 with the FTX exchange collapse.

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I know some people have been laughing at you perhaps sending messages on WhatsApp about what’s happening in the crypto space. It could be because sometimes you talked about Crypto and they now think you’re in losses.

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Actually, lower prices give us a new opportunity to enter trades at lower prices using less margin, now that we have been patient.

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Because when it goes up and you make a lot of profit, a new challenge will present itself. Your personal security and safety. Don’t plan how to get at them, you don’t have time for that. Plan what your investments you will be doing.

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Enjoy your weekend and have a great week ahead.