Bitcoin Phases: The Nov 2021-2023 Bear Phase & Accumulation Evaluation

February 27, 2025

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Table Of Contents:

Post Occurrence Review. Bear & Range

1. POST-REVIEW INSIGHTS AND LESSONS

Monthly timeframe: It offers the best view of the overall structure i.e. OABC correction during bear and Cup-&-Handle during range.
Weekly timeframe: It shows a detailed structure of the cup-&-handle and Inverse-Shoulder Structure
Daily timeframe: Shows the Moving average support and resistance.
Seasons: We have 4 seasons in terms of market reaction/action based on preparedness: Wait, Enter, Hold and Exit just like in farming you have waiting, planting, cultivating and harvest seasons.
Attitude: During the wait season remember “Delay does not mean denial, it means it is preparation time”. Increase your fuel tank of patience. Spend it on research and tests, learning and creating frameworks and models. During entering or planting season be bold and courageous to enter the trades. During hold be patient and do not be shaken out of a winning trend due to pullbacks observe the change of Moving Averages of the key trend timeframe.

2. PHASES

As iterated in this article, to form a complete cycle price goes through a series of 3 major phases i.e. Up, Down and Sideways. These follow each other in sequence separated by the sideways movements as shown below :

Let’s Review BTC Phases from Nov 2021 to Nov 2023

#Moving Averages Focus

Major Moving Averages to consider:

EMA5 Weekly & EMA10 Weekly
SMA35 Weekly, SMA100 Weekly & SMA200 Weekly

#Top Sideways

Zone A: Distribution.

Start: Indicated by Awesome Oscillator above 0, turns from Green to Red and confirmed by EMA5 Weekly > SMA10 Weekly.

End: EMA5 Weekly crossing down SMA35 Weekly

#Bear

Zone B: Bear.

Start: Price touches or crosses SMA35 Weekly as a leading indicator. Approximately confirmed by EMA5 Weekly crossing down SMA35 Weekly indicates the bear trend’s start.

End: This ended with the price touching SMA200 Weekly a target Moving Average. More accurately, this was indicated by EMA5 Weekly crossing down SMA200 Weekly and was later confirmed by Awesome Oscillator less than 0, changing from Red to Green indicating the change from Bear to Range.

#Bottom Sideways

Zone C: Bottom Ranging. Price ranges below SMA200 Weekly as a leading indicator. Confirmed more accurately by EMA5 Weekly < SMA200 Weekly and Awesome Oscillator less than 0, changing from Red to Green indicating the change from Bear to Range.
Zone D: Accumulation Ranging. Price ranges above SMA200 Weekly as a leading indicator. Confirmed more accurately by majorly EMA5 Weekly > SMA200 Weekly and Awesome Oscillator majorly greater than 0, post the impulsive correction.

# Trend Reversal

Zone C - Bottom Ranging: Trend reversal:
- RSI(14) Weekly crosses up 50
- EMA5 Weekly crosses up Bollinger Mid and later SMA20 Weekly
- Parabolic SAR (002, 0.2) shifts from above price to below price
- Awesome Oscillator crosses up from below 0 to above 0
- Lastly MACD crosses up from below 0 to above 0

#Bull

Zone E: Bull Trending.

Start: Started earlier during Bottom Ranging with Price touching SMA35 Weekly followed by EMA5 Weekly crossing up SMA35 Weekly.

Confirmed: Confirmed by EMA5 Weekly crossing up SMA100 Weekly.

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Best buys are along SMA35 Weekly

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3. BEAR DRAWDOWN

# Bull High 3 — Base Low Level

Estimate Bull High 3 Peak

Fib Extension: Place Fib 0 at the previous Base Low i.e. $3,122 and Fib 1 at Previous High i.e. $19.6K. Fib 4.236 gives an estimate of Base High 3 peak at $73,198 however for this respective broker highest listed price was $69K.

Estimate Bull High 3 Base

Fib Retracement: Place Fib 0 at Bull High 3 Peak at $69K and Fib 1 at the previous Base Low i.e. $3,122. The Base low is at the retracement level Fib 0.786 at $17,220 which is near the left shoulder of Cup-&-Handle.

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New insight added on 27th Feb 2025

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Trend	Higher Timeframe	Lower Timeframe	SMA35 Resistance (Lead)	SMA100 cross over (Lead)	SMA150 cross over (Lead)	SMA200 cross over (Lead)	Base Level - Inverse Head(Target)
Super Trend	Monthly	Weekly	Between @Fib 0 & @Fib 0.236 (SMA35 Weekly)	@Fib 0.5 (SMA100 Weekly)	Just below @Fib 0.618 (SMA150 Weekly)	Between @Fib 0.618 & @Fib 0.786 (SMA200 Weekly)	Just below Fib 0.786 (SMA50 Monthly)
Mega Trend	Weekly	Daily	Between @Fib 0 & @Fib 0.236 (SMA100 Daily)	@Fib 0.236 (SMA100 Daily)	Just above @Fib 0.382 (SMA150 Daily)	Between @Fib 0.382 & @Fib 0.5 (SMA200 Daily)	Just below Fib 0.5 (SMA50 Weekly)
Standard Trend	Daily	4-Hour

# Trend Type: SMA200 Weekly — 5th Dec 2021 & 12th Dec 2021

EMA5 Weekly cross down EMA10 Weekly (Super Trend) by week of 5th Dec 2021. Indicating close all trades

EMA5 Weekly cross down SMA20 Weekly by week of 12th Dec 2021. Confirming the end of the Bull trend and confirming Bear Trend.

This indicated the following hints as of December 2021:

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# Range Roof: SMA200 Weekly — 31st Dec 2021

EMA5 Daily cross down SMA200 Daily on 31st Dec 2021 signifying next support to be SMA200 Weekly. SMA200 Daily is ~= to SMA35 Weekly i.e. the Trend Resistance/Support.

EMA5 Daily cross down SMA200 Daily

# Range Floor: SMA100 Monthly (Not Touched) — 9th May 2022

EMA5 Weekly cross down SMA100 Weekly on the week of 9th May 2022 signifying next support to be SMA100 Monthly. The Capitulation Candle found its bottom during this week.