February 24, 2025
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25th Feb 2025 - Fractals are not very reliable. I would consider it as not reliable like using moving averages and general market trend. It was just easier to follow downward trend in a bear year rather than remain hopeful due to bullish pullbacks within a bear trend.
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Summary: Litecoin Model 2017 vs Bitcoin 2021/22
NB*Â Post-analysis addendum review: Chart was updated and added with the latest figures
Using Litecoin 2017 Prices, I modelled Bitcoin Price. The same has been going on well from April 2021 to April 2022 when it went Red.
The above chart is for Bitcoin Lowest Prices (Risk) — shows a ~97% accuracy rate. For Highs, at ~102% accuracy rate.
Accurate to ~97% on the lows and ~102% on the Highs, 99.68% overall
> Digression in April as the Fed increased the rates leading to a stronger dollar
NB* July 15th top is not feasible at the moment.
On a better note, whereas timing this peak has proved difficult due to an ever-strong US Dollar, the model still remains valid as shown below
The 18-Day cycle during a bull run is still going on well, with drawdowns/pullbacks happening on the 18th day.
As you can see above the Litecoin Model anticipated a total drawdown of -115% we have now completed a drawdown of -115% as shown in the actual column.
Drawdowns Summary
Still on track
18-Day cycle ongoing
Drawdown on respective 18-days follows expected model in terms of one-digit and two-digit drawdown
The next Federal Reserve Bank meeting is from 26th to 27th July 2022. The deficit here was a 178 bp increment, we see they’ve done 150bp. Balance is 28 bp. It is anticipated that they might increase rates by 50 or 75bp which is above our 28bp we expect to take us to the peak.
The dilemma is, do the market players take the price up before or do we wait then after confirmation, go up?
The Dollar Index is currently very strong at 107.3. A level last seen in 2002 as shown by the purple box. That was during President Bush era, making it stronger than Obama’s and Trump’s eras.
As you can see it’s even impacted the prices of used cars in Kenya which have risen by 30%.
However, as the Dollar has gained from 104 to 107 in the past few days ……
Gold has gone down from mid 1800$ to mid 1700$ …..
Bitcoin has held firmly the 20K$ range.
Last but not least, there are some moving averages I have been tracking across different timeframes i.e. 4-Hour & Daily (Moving Average Resistance), Weekly & Monthly (Parabolic SAR). I expected action around 21st June but I note a 2-week delay and it occurred between 5th and 7th July.
In summary, the path to July 15th needed overcoming 4-Hour resistance on 21st June but the same occurred on 5th July (+14 days). So if the same energy goes do we also say 15th July + 14 days = 29th July as our next target date and watch whether Daily resistance delays are to be overcome and add delay days to 29th July perhaps taking us to the last half of August? Especially considering the Fed meeting at end of July?
I don’t know but step by step I will keep tracking and being ready for I feel everything is coming together and the obstacles remaining are few.
I leave you with these motivations for the patient investors:
New King James Version
James 1: 2 My brethren, count it all joy when you fall into various trials, 3 knowing that the testing of your faith produces patience. 4 But let patience have its perfect work, that you may be perfect and complete, lacking nothing.
Hebrews 6:11–12 11 And we desire that each one of you show the same diligence to the full assurance of hope until the end, 12 that you do not become [a]sluggish, but imitate those who through faith and patience inherit the promises.
Brief update
First, a review of what we expected
Second, what we anticipate next
Fed raised rates by 75 BP as expected
Rate hikes to support peak. Confirmed
No pullback on 18-day cycle i.e. 14th July 2012, all drawdown as per model fulfilled.
Price found strong support at SMA200 Weekly. Price going up. This is usually confirmed by 9 weeks consolidation/ranging period which ends around 17th August 2022.
Now unto next, I won’t post the deep dive analysis. This time I will just give the respective dates and times based on the projected path.
Consider it as an estimate rather than a guaranteed one.
BTCUSD
19th Aug 2022 — ~30K$
30th Aug 2022 — ~53K$
3rd Sept 2022 -~68K$
15th Sept 2022 -~137K$
23rd Sept 2022 -~225K$
NB Post-analysis addendum review: Looks like there is a delay to time with US midterm elections. Maybe of 2 weeks (20220829)*
On Thursday, I will share respective financial projections. It will be a numbers day.
The team has grown to over 20 clients and over 50 active and funded accounts.
Team leaders you can continue engaging your teams, I will get in touch with the larger team from the 17th.
Have a good afternoon.