<aside> <img src="/icons/reorder_blue.svg" alt="/icons/reorder_blue.svg" width="40px" /> Navigation

Connect

Trade

Risk Management

Invest

Financials

Coaching

Blog

Research

Tutorials

Reviews

</aside>

Table Of Contents:

The Start of the Storm

image.png

image.png

image.png

By Zoning out the accumulation zone with a green curvy line touching the lows and straight red line touching the resistance, we see end of the accumulation zone is 13th Oct 2024.

The Trend & Resistance Levels

image.png

Why bullish?

  1. Trend: The Price has formed Higher Lows (HL) and Higher Highs (HH) as shown in the diagram above.
  2. R1: Upper diagonal resistance line: A break above the thin red diagonal line crossing previous weekly highs should indicate an upward trend. Price @ ~ $65,184
  3. R2: Parabolic Weekly SAR: The weekly Parabolic SAR is at $66,637, a flip of this indicator by price resulting in it going below the price is bullish.
  4. R3: Previous ATH: The previous ATH was at Fib 4.236 level where Fib 0 was at previous cycle Base low in 2018 and Fib 1 at the previous cycle peak High in 2017. Price @ ~ $73,859. When price goes above this it will enter the price-discovery zone.

When Peak? Where Peak? Bitcoin Peaks

31st Oct 2024

Main Chart used for historical data: Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) in Trading View

1st Top (Local Top) 2nd Top (Global Top) Parabolic Phase Timeline
Year Post Peak Dip % Fib 0 (Previous Base Low) Fib 1 (Previous Peak High) Fib 4.236 (Major Peak 1) Actual Variance Fib 0 (Previous Base Low) Fib 1 (Major Peak 1) Fib 4.236 (Major Peak 1) Actual Variance
2011 -71.43% 0.01 1.95 (Assumed Peak 23rd Apr 2011) 8.23 8.85 7.53% 0.01 8.85 37.46 31.90 -14.84% 11 Days to 4x
2013 -93.43% 2.01 31.90 128.62 268.67 108.89% 2.01 268.67 1,131.58 1,177 4.03% 19 Days to 4x
2017 -85.46% 164 1,177 4,456 4,971 11.56% 164 4,971 20,528 19,765 -3.72% 37 Days to 4x
2024 -84.09% 3,148 19,765 73,534 73,794 0.35% 3,148 73,794 302,489 55 Days to 4x ?

Update on 16th Oct 2024 (Wednesday)

image.png

Weekly Timeframe:

The 1st resistance @65K and 2nd resistance @66K have been hit. The price is highly likely to close at $70K+ today (16th Oct 2024). This will be a higher-high than July’s Top. If the trend continues we should pass $73K by tomorrow like a knife cutting through butter on the way to form New ATHs.

Update on 23rd Oct 2024 (Wednesday)

A retest of previous resistance levels

23rd 1.jpg

We had 2 resistance levels R1 @ $65,184 & R2 @ $66,637. We observe price broke R1 and retested it i.e. turns to support. It broke R2 and is now retesting it. In essence, resistance turning to support

23rd 2.jpg

Weekly Timeframe.

  1. Parabolic SAR is below Price this is bullish.

  2. Weekly close was above July top another bullish indicator.

  3. Awesome Oscillator crossed over from less than 0 to greater than 0 and is increasing (green), another bullish signal.

23rd 3.jpg

Weekly timeframe

  1. MACD Main (white lines) is now greater than MACD Signal (red dashed lines). This is a lagging indicator and has greater reliability and especially on higher timeframes. It can be observed during the range/bearish in nature, MACD Signal (red dashed lines) was on top of MACD Main (white vertical lines) now we have the opposite.

23rd 4.jpg

Trend is intact. We can observe a series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows. With the 3rd Higher low retesting the 1st Higher High. R3 at 73K is the most important level to break to enter price discovery.

The expected volatility in the next moves may need very skillful traders. I anticipate it's a storm (rapid increase of price within a very short period of time), the likes of which many have never experienced before. Risk management will be key.