Bitcoin 2025

Summary

BITCOIN PRE-CHRISTMAS EXPECTED RUN:

1. Fed lower interest rates on 10th Dec '25.

2. Price goes and holds above $93.7K.

3. Weekly Parabolic SAR shifts from above $113.1K to below price.

4. SMA20 Daily > SMA35 Daily.

5. New ATHs afterwards, price > $126.3K.

Details

KEY REVERSAL INDICATORS FOR A BULLISH MARKET - THE PRE-CHRISTMAS RUN

1. Fed makes a likely positive announcement i.e. lower rates on 10th Dec '25 & and markets react bullish by 12th Dec '25 after up-down-up volatility.

   (Downward bound of volatility may go to ~$87K and upper bound of volatility may go to ~$97K)

2. Price goes above $93.7K

   (Year 2025 Open Price) by 12th Dec '25 and keeps the level. A close above this level would be bullish for the year.

3. Weekly timeframe: Parabolic SAR at ~113K is above price. Price hits that level and it goes below price at ~$80K level or less. By 13th Dec '25, latest 17th Dec '25.

4. Daily timeframe: SMA20 Daily crosses up SMA35 Daily going up by 17th Dec '25

5. New ATH's by 19th Dec '25.

The next 1 week are crucial, stay alert on reversal signals. Risk management first as always.

NB: Projections (based on previous models) are events with a high probability likelihood of occurring and should not be considered as a guarantee.

Diagrams

Bitcoin 2025 Review (30th Oct 2025):

• Timeframe: Monthly
• MAs: SMA10 & SMA20
• Time: Bitcoin accumulated for 11 months, from December 2024 to October 2025
• Price: High Price was $126,272, Low Price was $74,434, Mid Price was $100,353. Price has ranged/oscillated around mid price with +/- $25,919

Split: If you split into 2 halves across middle month i.e. the 6th month

• First 5 months had mainly bearish candles and below mid price.
• Last 5 months had mainly bullish candles and above mid price.

Analysis:

• After ranging for 11 months, with low price of range finding support at high price 2024 Q1 (Bull High 3):

  • Will price make a parabolic rise on 2nd month of Q4 like in 2023?
  • Will the Ratio of High Price vs Opening Price appl? i.e. 5.7793

  <aside> 💡

  Update: 1st Nov 2025

  Opening Price Nov 2025 ($109,487) * 5.7793 = $632,758

  </aside>